Over the last two weeks we have been hearing lots of reports of mysterious drones, many reports describe them as swarms, over the skies of New Jersey. Newspapers, evening news, the internet, and social media are flooded with reports and opinions about the origins of the drones that have allegedly been hovering in New Jersey’s night skies over the past few weeks. Is it the Department of Defense? Iran? China? Russia? Aliens? It is no exaggeration to say that the general public is still experiencing a lot of anxiety. As a citizen, I’d like to find out where they are taking off from and report the location to local law enforcement or the FBI.
On December 10, 2024 the United States Congress held a hearing entitled, “Safeguarding the Homeland from Unmanned Aerial Systems”. They grilled top officials with the FBI, DOJ, and U.S. Customs and Border Patrol. No one offered any compelling answers.
A short sampling of recent news reports:
You can spend endless hours watching drone reports on YouTube. They mostly say the same things over and over again.
I joined a Facebook Group dedicated to the drone sightings. People had tracked their flight paths, posted photos and videos, and shared their thoughts. Friends and colleagues confided with me that large drones are hovering near their homes just after dark, or following their cars down the road. Students are telling me where they take off each evening. Not wanting to miss all of the action, I asked around school to see if anyone wanted to join me on a drone-watching expedition. If you are going to encourage your students to be citizen-scientists, you have to walk the walk when a good story drops in your lap. One of my best friends enthusiastically volunteered and we spent two of the last three evenings watching the sun set in a local area where the skies were reportedly filled with drones each evening.
The first evening was very cloudy and rainy, and visibility was very limited. Undeterred, we waited for hours. No drones in sight, but hey, we couldn't see very far and maybe drones don’t fly in the rain. What do I know? Two days later, the weather cleared up. It was Go Time.
We met again, binoculars in hand, temperatures well below freezing with a biting wind. The skies were crystal clear. As soon as I pulled into the parking lot my science teacher colleague jumped up, “There’s one! There’s another!” He jumped in my car, “I see where they are taking off, you drive, I’ll tell you where to go!”
We were off to the races. Excited, I couldn’t wait to see my first drone. These aren’t your hobby drones, I’ve been told, they are the size of a small SUV. I couldn’t wait to see one. We found a location with excellent viewing as darkness settled in. The sky was filled with lights. The lights of planes, stars, and the Moon. Time after time, the lights we hoped and thought were drones revealed themselves to be planes upon closer inspection. Jets, small planes, you name it. No drones. Then we went to the location several reliable people had reported seeing them take off at 7:30 pm several nights in a row. We could see at least ten miles in all four directions. We stood there, until we got so cold we had to hop in the car to warm up, then back out again. Hundreds of lights went by, all planes. In fact, we identified a clear flight pattern that paralleled a distant tree line, and was probably a scheduled line of jets intending to land at the largest airport in our state. At first glance, they often looked like close drones, but they turned out to be distant commercial jets. Every thirty seconds another one went by, and one time, one even tricked us for a few minutes by taxiing and deviating from the flight path all of the others had taken, probably while waiting for clearance to land. Hours went by, we viewed well over 200 square miles of clear New Jersey sky, and no drones were observed. The Geminids meteor shower did arrive a little after midnight, which made staying up light watching the night sky totally worth it!
Cold and discouraged, we returned to our homes. I revisited the Facebook group, reading post after post, closely scrutinizing every photo and video with a critical scientific mindset. Hundreds of plane videos and photos. Lens effects, reflections off a windshield, laser pointers, stars, the Big Dipper (drones in formation of course), a case of Computer-Generated Imagery (CGI), a lighthouse, even the Moon. Pictures of mysterious orbs, because the drones are supposedly capable of changing their appearance to stump the people who are trying to view them. Sadly, not one objectively compelling video from this citizen-scientists perspective.
I’m not saying there aren’t any drones out there. To date, we have only deliberately watched the night skies four times. I’m not even arguing there aren’t drones flying over New Jersey as I type this blog post. In fact, I’m pretty sure there are a lot of hobby drone owners getting in on the fun. If I was under 30 and owned even a moderately-sized drone I’d probably be having a blast.
There's always the possibility that the U.S. Navy could be flying a few of these around:
Perhaps Air Taxis could explain a small percentage of the alleged drone sightings.
However, and I really hate to report this, I haven’t seen any compelling evidence that persuades me to think there are large numbers of large drones (larger than the ones you could buy online for less than $2,000) flying over New Jersey. I don't think there is anything to be worry about. It's an unpopular view. I’m pretty confident there are at least a million people who strongly disagree with me. How could this be? How could the news media mislead the general public so wildly?
There are several valuable lessons here. Make your own direct observations. Trust your observations more than what you have been told by others. Think for yourself. Be your own investigative reporter. Try as hard as you can to overcome your biases. Try even harder to see precisely what you are actually observing instead of what you want to see. Be open to new evidence. Be respectful of those who interpret the evidence differently, but retain your right to form your own conclusions. Be a clear-headed citizen-scientist. Teaching people to think like scientists is precisely why I became a science teacher.
I’d love to report that we saw tons of drones and we know where they are launching them from. I’d also love to report that we found evidence of UFOs and Bigfoot. But that just isn’t the case. We can, however, confirm that there are several major and minor airports in and around New Jersey, and they are likely quite profitable.
What we have observed:
There are lots of lights in the night sky over New Jersey.
Over 1,200 night sky light sightings investigated during four nights of viewing (including one trip in a personal aircraft to enhance viewing opportunities).
Virtually all sightings were identifiable as manned aircraft. The rest were just too far away to confirm identity.
Many of the news reports we have observed are regurgitated. There is very little authentic reporting on this story.
The videos and photographs we have observed are either identifiable as manned aircraft or inconclusive.
What we know:
The FAA requires that all aircraft must have approved anti-collision lights and position lights for nighttime operations. The light formation is red on the left side, green on the right side, and a white tail light. Other lights are permitted but optional.
New Jersey is some of the busiest airspace in the country.
Newark Liberty, JFK, and LaGuardia are all major airports.
On December 2, 2024, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screened 3.08 million airline passengers, breaking the previous record. It has been a very, very busy flight season.
Hobby drones will have a simple set of anti-collision lights positioned around its body. These lights can be red, green or white, and are usually displayed in pairs. So, look for two, four, or six lights close together. Green lights only or red lights only will display, sometimes with white lights. You will not see green and red lights simultaneously on a hobby drone.
Plane trackers, such as the Flightradar24 app, do not include all airplanes. If a personal aircraft, such as a Cessna, does not have a transponder, it will not appear on most radar systems used by air traffic control (ATC).
Humans have not evolved accurate depth perception in the night sky. Things you’re seeing are often further away than you think. Historically, many people believed the Moon and Sun were roughly the same distance away from Earth. The reality is that the Moon is 1/400 the size of the Sun and 1/400 the distance from Earth, so they appear to be the same size. What appears as a drone 200 hundred feet up in the air might be a personal plane 1,000 feet high or a commercial jet airliner at 4,000 feet (a common altitude in many areas of New Jersey as they approach a major airport). One consequence of poor depth perception is that our ability to estimate the speed of night objects is also poor. Another consequence is that objects that are coming toward or away from us can appear to be hovering.
News organizations get more money when they get more views.
The power of suggestion is a powerful influence on perception.
I’m 100% open to evidence supporting the reports of swarms of large drones flying over New Jersey. I just haven't directly observed any compelling evidence yet. I am open to new evidence and respectful of those who interpret the evidence we do have differently.
In conclusion, right now I am skeptical of the reports of mass swarms of large drones flying over New Jersey each night. I’m wrong a lot, this could be just one more instance. Convince me I'm wrong. If anyone shows me a compelling video, I’ll change my mind in a second and head back out there to try to find out where the drones are coming from. Until then, this meteor shower has me captivated.
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